Understanding Conviction Score

HoldingsIntel Exclusive

The metric that reveals which positions actually matter to hedge funds

Not all positions are created equal

A $500M position representing 5% of a fund's portfolio signals far more conviction than a $50K position at 0.01%. Conviction Score combines portfolio commitment, position size changes, and dollar magnitude into a single 0-100 metric that reveals which positions truly matter.

Higher Score = Bigger Bet

Focus on positions that funds are truly committed to

Three Dimensions of Conviction

The score uses a weighted geometric mean across three dimensions. All three must be strong for a top score — strength in one dimension cannot compensate for weakness in another.

35% weight

Portfolio Commitment

How much of the fund's portfolio this position represents. A 5% weight scores 100; a 0.1% weight scores 25. The bigger the bet relative to the fund, the higher the commitment.

30% weight

Action Intensity

Whether it's a new position or how aggressively an existing position was increased. A 100% increase scores near the top; a 5% increase scores near the bottom.

35% weight

Dollar Magnitude

The actual capital deployed, scaled logarithmically. $1B scores 100, $100M scores 83, $10M scores 67, $1M scores 50. Small-dollar positions score low regardless of other factors.

Score Examples

93
Focused fund initiates $50M position at 5% weight

Exceptional conviction - concentrated bet with significant capital at high weight

74
Berkshire adds $4.3B GOOGL position at 1.6% weight

High conviction - massive capital deployed, meaningful portfolio allocation

72
Large fund doubles $20M position to 1% weight

High conviction - aggressive 100% increase with real dollars behind it

46
Small fund buys $200K at 0.5% weight

Moderate conviction - modest capital, but notable portfolio weight

0
Decreased or sold position

No conviction signal - fund is reducing exposure

Why Conviction Score Matters

Filter the Noise

13F filings contain thousands of positions. Most are tiny, legacy, or index-driven. Conviction Score helps you focus on the positions that represent real investment theses.

Spot Real Conviction

When a fund makes a position 5% of their portfolio, they've done serious research. When they add 0.01%, it might just be a basket trade. The score reveals the difference.

Track Meaningful Changes

A fund doubling a 3% position is news. A fund adding 5% to a 0.1% position isn't. Conviction Score weights changes by their actual significance.

Technical Note

Conviction Score is computed for every position change in our database using a three-dimensional weighted geometric mean: commitment0.35 × action0.30 × credibility0.35. Each dimension is independently scored 0-100, then combined multiplicatively — meaning weakness in any single dimension pulls the entire score down. A $500M position at 0.01% portfolio weight scores low (weak commitment). A 200% increase on a $50K position scores low (weak credibility). Only positions that are meaningful across all three dimensions earn a high score. Decreased and sold positions receive a score of 0. A small concentration bonus (+1 to +3 points) is added for funds with fewer than 50 positions. The score is recalculated each quarter when new 13F filings are processed.

See Conviction Score in Action

Browse high conviction positions across all tracked funds. Filter, sort, and discover which positions the smart money is truly committed to.