Question 1

What is the Conviction Score?

Accepted Answer

Conviction Score (0–100) quantifies how meaningful a position is to the fund that holds it. It's a weighted geometric mean of three dimensions: portfolio commitment (weight_in_portfolio), action intensity (NEW vs INCREASED size), and dollar magnitude (LOG10 of position value).

Question 2

How is Conviction Score calculated?

Accepted Answer

Three components: Commitment (0.35 weight, maps portfolio weight to 0–100), Action (0.30 weight, distinguishes NEW from INCREASED), Credibility (0.35 weight, dollar magnitude). raw = pow(commitment, 0.35) × pow(action, 0.30) × pow(credibility, 0.35). Adds up to +3 concentration bonus for funds with ≤20 positions.

Question 3

What conviction score is considered strong?

Accepted Answer

Scores 75+ indicate exceptional conviction across all three dimensions. 60–74 is a meaningful commitment. Below 50 is usually low-magnitude or diffuse positioning. The Conviction Backtesting page shows forward-return performance by band.

Question 4

Does Conviction Score work for SOLD or DECREASED positions?

Accepted Answer

No. Conviction Score only fires for NEW or INCREASED positions — it measures how strongly a fund is committing capital, not unwinding it.

#	Fund	Stock	Action	Conviction	Shares Δ	Value	Weight
1	PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND	SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN-CL A(SPCX)	New	100	New	$26.3B	69.5%
2	NVIDIA CORP	SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN-CL A(SPCX)	New	100	New	$21B	33.1%
3	SC US (TTGP), LTD.	SPACE EXPLORATION TECHN-CL A(SPCX)	New	100	New	$20.9B	65.6%
4	JONES FINANCIAL COMPANIES LLLP	VUG VANGUARD GROWTH ETF	Increased	100	+458.6%	$18.1B	7.3%
5	Capula Management Ltd	IVV ISHARES CORE S&P 500 ETF	Increased	100	+120.5%	$15B	53.7%
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High Conviction

High Conviction - latest quarter results